38th Congressional Race Not Yet as Fierce as Forecast, Poll Shows

If the race in the 38th Congressional District is Orange County’s fiercest electoral battle this year, apparently no one told many of the voters. Last weekend, when a sample of residents was asked which candidate they preferred, 38% said they didn’t know, had no opinion or had never heard of the candidates before.

The poll, taken for KABC television by Teichner & Associates of Santa Ana, asked 405 registered Democrats and Republicans to choose between incumbent Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove), a fiery conservative with a national following, and two Democrats, six-term Assemblyman Richard Robinson (D-Garden Grove) and Superior Judge David O. Carter, a former homicide prosecutor making his first bid for political office.

Though the largest percentage of voters had not made up their minds, 36% said that if the election had been held Saturday they would have voted for Dornan. Another 17% said they would have voted for Robinson, and 9% said they would have voted for Carter.

Asked who they would have voted for if a Democratic primary had been held Saturday, 33% of registered Democrats chose Robinson, 19% picked Carter and 48% said they didn’t know. The percentage of error for the poll was plus or minus 5%, Teichner said.

Although it is three months before the primary and eight months until the general election, and although the percentage of undecided voters is high, their answers Saturday clearly show that Dornan is vulnerable this year, Teichner said.

“I label this a contested seat,” he said of the 38th. “It is a factor here of a congressman with a national following who is extremely visible in the time he spends in Congress and who is rated by those who do the ratings as fairly efficient in terms of bringing grants and stuff back to the district.

“And yet it is a Democratic district (currently 49% of its voters are Democratic; 40% are Republican),” Teichner said. “The fact that Dornan’s been there only two years doesn’t give his seat the value of a historical incumbency. This election might give it to him, but at this point he doesn’t have it.”

The poll also shows that Robinson, a state assemblyman for 12 years, has significant name recognition, especially in his Assembly district, Teichner said. Still, Carter’s 19% rating showed the political newcomer building strength in the district, Teichner said.

Each Candidate Pleased

Each of the candidates or their campaign workers said they were pleased by the results.

Dornan said the poll results gave him a rating 8% above the rating he got about this time two years ago when he first ran for the 38th District seat. Dornan in 1984 unseated Democratic Rep. Jerry Patterson with about 55% of the vote. Dornan said he believed he would win by the same margin this time; he said he assumed that about half of those who called themselves undecided Saturday would vote for him in November.

In reviewing the results, Dornan also suggested that Carter “ought to pull out” of the race because of his 19% showing in the poll. (A Dornan aide has said that Carter could be a more formidable opponent than Robinson because Carter, a law-and-order Democrat, has no legislative record to attack.)

But Carter had no intention of pulling out. Indeed, Carter campaign manager Michael J. Houlihan called the poll results “very encouraging.” As a novice political candidate, Carter hadn’t been expected to get more than 14% of the vote, Houlihan said. With more precinct walking, several mailers and a series of parties for Carter in district residents’ homes, Carter’s name identification should go up soon, Houlihan said.

Robinson Aide’s View

Robinson campaign manager Hope Warschaw also called the poll “very encouraging. Where people know Robinson the most, he’s well liked,” she said. Also, she said, Dornan’s showing of only 36% “means that he’s extremely vulnerable in November.”

Although Teichner’s poll rated all three candidates against one another, it did not pit a Democrat in a head-to-head fight with Dornan--in other words Robinson against Dornan or Carter against Dornan--as will occur in the November election.

Teichner said he decided not to do that because the level of undecided votes in such a ranking would be “incredibly high” and would confuse the results. Although Teichner called this a “benchmark” poll for the 38th Congressional District, he said he did not know if he and KABC television would be doing another one in that district before the June election.

Here are the results of the Teichner Poll, asked of 405 voters in the 38th Congressional District on Saturday:

If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Rep. Robert K. Dornan, Assemblyman Richard Robinson or Superior Court Judge David O. Carter?

Dornan--36%

Robinson--17%

Carter--9%

Undecided--38%

If the Democratic primary were held today, would you vote for Carter or Robinson (this asked only of registered Democrats)?

Robinson--33%

Carter--19%

Undecided--48%