ABC May Lose $20 Million in ‘War’ Miniseries

NEW YORK — ABC’s “War and Remembrance” will make television history as the most mega of miniseries ever made--and it will lose as much as $20 million by the time the last episode airs in May.

“It’s a lot of money we’ll lose, but what the heck,” said John B. Sias, president of the ABC Television Network Group. “It’s a terrific vehicle to get people back into (watching network) television.”

Starting Sunday and continuing for six out of the next 10 nights, ABC will air the first 18 hours of its massive dramatization of Herman Wouk’s World War II novel. The final 14 hours will air in May.

Like Sias, top advertising executives are high on this sequel to ABC’s 18-hour, $40-million “Winds of War” of 1983, which was based on another Wouk novel set shortly before Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.

“It will do very well in the ratings,” Paul Isacsson, executive vice president of the Young & Rubicam advertising agency, said of “War and Remembrance,” which ABC officials now estimate will cost $110 million.

“It is great programming and it could help the network affiliates and generate new advertising for ABC,” says Richard J. Kostrya, executive vice president of J. Walter Thompson USA here.

Early reviews have been good. So have sales to sponsors, despite unusual restrictions on certain kinds of advertising imposed by Wouk’s contract with ABC, restrictions that also applied for “Winds of War.” Wouk wouldn’t allow ads for food and personal care products, or retail stores, or that ran only 15 seconds. (ABC said it can’t legally make its affiliates follow the restrictions in their local advertising, but said it will encourage them to do so.)

And instead of the usual seven minutes of network commercials that air each prime-time hour on ABC, there only will be six minutes during “War and Remembrance.” (This does not include time sold by local stations.)

Even with Wouk’s advertising restrictions, sponsors haven’t been daunted.

ABC said it has sold 95% of the available advertising time on “War and Remembrance” this month, and 60% of the available ad time for the concluding chapters that will air in May.

The network wouldn’t say how much it is charging sponsors, but one knowledgeable Madison Avenue source said that ABC is getting premium prices--$225,000 to $250,000 for the majority of its 30-second ads, and up to $275,000 for some.

Why, then, that projected loss of up to $20 million, which Wall Street analyst J. Kendrick Noble of Paine Webber termed “a legitimate forecast”?

“Essentially, it’s very difficult to recover (the show’s) $3.5-million-an-hour (cost) of production,” ABC chief Sias explained in a phone interview. “Reduced to its simplest element, that’s it.”

In other words, even selling at premium rates, the advertising revenue won’t equal the extraordinary costs. By contrast, a standard TV movie might cost up to $1,250,000 an hour.

“Per hour, I don’t think there’s been anything in television production like this,” Sias said, adding that interest on the money used to finance the production accounted for a large chunk of ABC’s expense.

He said the projected loss estimate includes whatever income ABC will realize from the show--co-produced by Dan Curtis Productions and ABC Circle Films--when it is repeated on the network and sold overseas.

“War and Remembrance” scripts were already being written and preproduction was well under way when Capital Cities, known for its lean, tight-with-a-buck operation, bought ABC in 1985. The network at that time was mired in third place in the prime-time ratings.

One of the first major decisions Cap Cities’ officials had to make then was whether to proceed with the ambitious miniseries. To kill it, a knowledgeable source said, would have meant $17 million down the drain. In addition, the project had the strong backing of ABC movie chief Brandon Stoddard, whom Cap Cities executives wanted to take charge of the network’s entertainment division (which he subsequently did).

Producer-director Dan Curtis was given the green light.

At a press conference last month, Cap Cities/ABC board chairman Thomas S. Murphy, conceding that the miniseries will be “something we’ll certainly take a bath with financially,” was asked if he’d do it all over again, knowing now how the economics have worked out.

“I would say that I’ve been up and down on that decision like the market,” Murphy said. But believing that the miniseries is “the best thing I’ve ever seen” in his 35 years in television, he said, he would still approve it.

The production was budgeted at $104 million and, said an ABC source, Dan Curtis completed filming three weeks ahead of schedule and on budget. The original plan was to air the first installments next February, but when Hollywood’s script writers struck and stayed out for 22 weeks last summer, ABC, scrambling like its rivals for original programming, pushed up the show’s debut to November, a key ratings “sweeps” month.

That forced Curtis & Co. to work around the clock to meet the new debut date, a marathon effort that added $6 million to the show’s cost, the source said.

While the estimated size of the nation’s television audience has grown to 90.4 million homes from 83.3 million in 1983, the networks’ share of that audience has declined, due to heavy inroads made by cable TV, independent stations and videocassettes.

Partly for that reason, ABC, whose hit “Winds of War” averaged a stellar 38.6 rating when it aired in February, 1983, is projecting much lower ratings for “War and Remembrance.” It won’t say what minimum ratings it has promised advertisers, but advertising sources said the network has guaranteed an average rating of 20.5.

Should the figure fall below that, ABC would have to give advertiser’s “make-goods”--free advertising time--and would lose even more money.

Because of rising costs and a theory that it is too difficult to sustain viewer interest in one show for very long, it is rare nowadays for miniseries to run more than six hours. Could “War and Remembrance” be not only the longest miniseries ever but also the last of its size, scope and cost?

“I can’t speak for anyone else,” ABC’s Sias said. He laughed. “But it will not happen again at ABC.”