Economy’s Most Durable Indicator : * Recession: A healthy overall rise in orders for long-lasting products is seen as an important harbinger.

NEW YORK — Washing machines, paper clips and tiny metal Elvis refrigerator magnets have at least some things in common.

They don’t rot like food. And when demand for them takes off, economic gurus can take notice.

An increase in factory orders for paper clips does not a recovery make. But as economists scour the landscape for signs, an overall rise in orders for long-lasting products may be an important harbinger.

These seemingly incongruous items, including pricier goods such as cars and industrial machinery, are on a lengthy Commerce Department list of durable goods. They are important because they stick around. While washing machines may break, durable goods last three years or more.

Their durability means they may not be replaced during troubled economic times--but conversely they might jump in demand when consumer spending rises during a recovery.

The government reported today that durable goods orders rose 1.6% in March, a substantial improvement over February’s 0.1% drop.

The report is just one of many economic indicators--including gross national product, employment figures, retail sales and housing starts--that can give analysts an idea of upcoming economic trends.

But big-ticket durables such as cars and washing machines are uniquely “deferrable from one year to the next,” said Donald Ratajczk, director of economic forecasting at Georgia State University in Atlanta. “So they weaken more than the economy in a downturn and strengthen more in an upturn.”

It’s those expensive items that matter, economists say. “If people aren’t willing to take a chance and buy a car, for example, then it’s an indication for the whole economy,” said Steve Andrews of the Census Bureau, which puts together the durables data for the Commerce Department.

A poor durables report can signal layoffs down the road, Andrews said, because fewer orders from retailers to factories can mean less production capacity is needed.

Indeed, durables can pull other sectors of the economy along with them, said Gordon Richards, a National Assn. of Manufacturers economist.

“When one sector rises, it’s highly probable other sectors will rise too,” Richards said.

Durables are not always the most reliable economic indicator, in part because the Commerce Department often significantly revises the report based on new information. Because the category runs from lumber to defense industries, the data can be extremely volatile. Often strength in a couple of well-heeled industries will cause a spike in overall orders.

“It’s easier to look at what’s not covered,” said the Commerce Department’s Adrian Cooper. Food, tobacco, clothing, paper, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, petroleum, rubber and plastic products are not on the list.