THE TIMES POLL : Huffington Cuts Feinstein Lead to a Few Points

Republican U.S. Senate challenger Mike Huffington has crept to within a few points of Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein, suggesting that the hard-fought, frequently nasty contest may go down to the wire with the outcome highly in doubt, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Feinstein leads by 4 points among registered voters, 46% to 42%, and her margin narrows to 3 points among likely voters, 48% to 45%. Just two weeks ago, Feinstein enjoyed a 9-point lead among registered voters and a 7-point margin among likely voters.

“The lead is within the poll’s margin of error,” poll Director John Brennan said.

But the poll--conducted before the disclosure of Huffington’s employment of an illegal immigrant as a nanny--illustrated that despite spending more than $25 million so far to vanquish Feinstein, Huffington remains an enigma to much of the electorate. Asked what they think of the Santa Barbara congressman, 27% of voters said they liked him and 44% disliked him--with 23% saying they did not know enough about him to make a judgment.

“After all this television, he goes into the final weeks of the election with almost a quarter of the voters unsure,” Brennan said.

Feinstein is liked by 41% and disliked by 45%, with only 10% saying they were unsure of her. Important to Feinstein, she is ahead among those who are uncertain about Huffington.

And Feinstein’s supporters are more committed to her than Huffington’s are to him. According to the poll, only 73% of the Republican congressman’s supporters described themselves as “certain” to vote for him. Of Feinstein’s backers, 81% said they would definitely vote for her.

The Feinstein-Huffington contest has attracted national attention for the vociferousness of the mutual attacks. Both candidates have leveled harsh accusations against their opponent and have angrily denounced the assaults made on them.

By Oct. 19, the end of the last financial reporting period, they jointly had spent almost $36 million, breaking the record for spending in a U.S. Senate race.

Most of the money spent by Huffington, the heir to a Texas oil and natural gas fortune, has come from his own bank account.

But according to the poll, the negative advertising the candidates have splashed across California television screens is coming back to haunt them both: 11% who dislike Huffington cite his ads as a reason, as do 8% of those who dislike Feinstein.

“Basically, both of these people are disliked,” Brennan said.

The Times Poll questioned 1,235 registered voters, of whom 762 are considered likely to vote Nov. 8. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is 3 percentage points in either direction; for likely voters it is 4 points in either direction. Margins of error for smaller subgroups may be larger. Participants were questioned Oct. 22-25.

According to the poll, no single reason accounts for the tightening of the Senate race, and the outcome may depend on voter turnout.

The poll was taken after both candidates had announced positions on the controversial anti-illegal immigration initiative, Proposition 187--Feinstein opposes it, Huffington supports it. But that issue was a wash among voters, with equal percentages of people saying they were more likely or less likely to vote for each candidate because of their position.

Additionally, the poll was concluded before The Times reported that for more than fours years Huffington had employed an illegal immigrant as a nanny for his two children.

The latest Los Angeles Times Poll demonstrated once again the stunning impact that Huffington’s accumulated commercials have had on Feinstein, once the most popular politician in the state. In March, 1994, before Huffington began dominating the airwaves, Feinstein received favorable ratings from 63% of registered voters--meaning that she has fallen 22 points over the course of the campaign.

But the first-term senator, who rolled to victory in 1992 against little-known Republican appointee John Seymour, maintains a stable standing among voters. In the last six weeks, her favorability ratings have not markedly changed.

Feinstein is running well among more dependable older voters, winning the 65 and older age group 48% to 39%, and those 45 to 64 years old by a margin of 49% to 41%. The candidates essentially split the votes of those under age 45, who are historically less apt to vote.

But Feinstein is having trouble hanging on to her Democratic base. Among Democratic men, 22% said they would vote for Huffington, as did 20% of Democratic women. That is more than double the percentage of defectors that Feinstein saw in her 1992 race against Seymour, who won only 11% of Democratic men and 7% of Democratic women.

To make it worse, Feinstein also is not doing as well attracting Republican women as she did in 1992. Exit polls taken in November, 1992, showed that Feinstein won the votes of 26% of Republican women, while only 15% say they support her now.

Overall, between the Times poll taken Oct. 8-11 and the current poll, Feinstein’s standing among Republicans fell 7 points, from 23% to 16%. Most of the drop came among self-described moderates and conservatives, the poll found. She also lost ground among those making less than $20,000 annually and those with a high school education or less.

Huffington gained among those same groups and also was running well among independent voters. Forty-six percent of independents indicated they would vote for him, while 39% sided with Feinstein. Huffington also leads among those who disliked both candidates.

Perhaps tellingly, given the massive amounts of negative artillery unleashed in this campaign, voters’ impressions of each candidate tend to mirror what they have heard on 30-second television ads.

Of those who like Feinstein, 31% said it was because she has “done a good job as senator” and 16% cited her record as mayor of San Francisco. Twelve percent said they were attracted by her experience, another 12% said they “just like her” and 10% said she stands up for California in Washington--a major tenet of her advertising.

Those who do not like her seemed to have taken to heart the criticisms by Huffington, who castigates Feinstein as a career politician who caters to special interests. Twelve percent said she is a career politician, another 12% said they “just do not like her,” 11% said she had a poor record as San Francisco mayor and 10% said she is dishonest or unethical.

Of those who liked Huffington, 16% said they “just like him,” 16% said it was because he is not Feinstein, 12% cited the use of his own money in the campaign and 10% said they favor him because he is a Republican.

Those who disliked Huffington reflected the attacks on him by Feinstein, who contends that he is a recent Texas immigrant unworthy of voters’ trust. Twenty-one percent said he was a carpetbagger, another 21% said he was trying to buy the election, 16% said he could not be trusted and 11% disapproved of his campaign advertising.

“His ideas, the idea of cutting government, the idea of reforming welfare, really haven’t caught on,” poll Director Brennan concluded. “It’s still more of an anti-Feinstein vote.”

Though 11% of those who did not like Feinstein cited her experience as San Francisco mayor, her tenure there is clearly paying dividends in the tight Senate race. When the contest is broken down geographically, Feinstein not only leads as expected in the Bay Area but also in the rest of Northern California, which generally votes Republican.

The incumbent senator also leads in Democratic-leaning Los Angeles, but trails Huffington in the more conservative surrounding counties.

Senate Race Down to the Wire

With less than two weeks left until Californians vote, Democrat Dianne Feinstein holds only a razor-thin lead over GOP challenger Rep. Mike Huffington in the U.S. Senate race.

If the general election for U.S. senator from California were being held today, for whom would you vote? 10/25:

Registered Voters Likely Voters Feinstein 46% 48% Huffington 42% 45% Someone else 2% 1% Don’t know 10% 6%

*10/11:

Registered Voters Likely Voters Feinstein 49% 49% Huffington 40% 42% Someone else 1% 1% Don’t know 10% 8%

*9/11:

Registered Voters Likely Voters Feinstein 49% 49% Huffington 40% 43% Someone else 1% --* Don’t know 10% 8%

AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS

Why do you like Feinstein? (Among those who like her)**:

Done good job as senator: 31%

Record as San Francisco mayor: 16%

Just like her: 12%

Experienced politician: 12%

*

Why do you dislike Feinstein? (Among those who dislike her)**:

Just don’t like her: 12%

Career politician: 12%

Record as San Francisco mayor: 11%

Dishonest: 10%

*

Why do you like Huffington? (Among those who like him)**:

Just like him: 16%

He’s not Feinstein: 16%

Not attached to special interests: 12%

He’s a Republican: 10%

*

Why do you dislike Huffington? (Among those who dislike him)**:

Not from California: 21%

Spends too much on campaign: 21%

Dishonest: 16%

Negative advertising: 11%

*

How has Huffington’s support for/Feinstein’s opposition to Proposition 187 affected your vote for U.S. senator?

HUFFINGTON’S FEINSTEIN’S SUPPORT OPPOSITION More likely to vote 23% 21% Less likely to vote 22% 23% No effect 53% 54% Don’t know 2% 2%

Which candidate for U.S. Senate do you think has the higher standards of honesty and integrity?

Feinstein: 36%

Huffington: 24%

Both: 3%

Neither: 16%

Don’t know: 21%

* Indicates less than 0.5%

** Accepted two replies. Only top volunteered responses are shown.

Source: Los Angeles Times polls of California voters

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,659 adults statewide, by telephone, Saturday through Tuesday. Included in the sample are 1,235 registered voters and 762 likely voters. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform more closely with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as the wording of questions and the order in which they are presented.