Put Airport on Ballot Again, Voters Say

In a remarkable signal that the county’s airport fight may be far from over, nearly two-thirds of Orange County voters want another chance to cast ballots on whether to build a commercial airport at El Toro, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

Moreover, most voters prefer a proposal to put a park, technology center and university on the site over any of the county’s airport plans, the poll said.

Although voters countywide believe an airport would benefit the local economy, the poll showed overall disfavor for each of the county government’s four airport scenarios, even its preferred plan for a 25-million annual passenger airport. Yet a majority of the voters said they like the idea of the so-called Millennium Plan of mixed uses, which was created by South County airport opponents in March.

While the poll found some of the wide disparities that have come to be expected between the county’s north and south, with South County voters clearly up in arms over any airport designs, even North County voters strongly favored a new vote on the issue. Furthermore, Northerners turned thumbs down on each of the county’s airport plans; their most popular single scenario was the Millennium Plan.

“What do the voters like? They like the Millennium Plan,” said Cheryl Katz of Baldassare Associates, which conducted the poll for The Times. “People are not that satisfied with any of the plans they have seen for the airport.”

In a stinging indictment of county government, neither North nor South County residents approved of the way the Board of Supervisors and its staff have handled the issue.

‘A Banner Day’ for Airport Foes

South County airport opponents were elated to hear the poll results.

“This is a banner day,” said Laguna Niguel Councilwoman Patricia C. Bates. “This [Millennium] Plan was a winner from the start. This shows that, given the information, people make the right choice.”

County officials said the poll results were nothing shocking.

“Millennium Plan proponents have spent and budgeted $1 million to promote the plan, whereas the county has spent very little money on promotion of the airport,” said Supervisor Charles V. Smith, an airport advocate. “We are not doing as good a job as we should be doing in promoting the economic benefits an airport would bring to Orange County. This just shows how you can sway public opinion by spending on public relations.”

For analysis of opinion in North and South County, Newport Beach is included in the North, poll officials said. South is defined as Irvine and south.

Those polled said they simply thought voters should have a chance to judge the issue, even though two airport-related measures--in 1994 and 1996--have gone before voters.

“This should be the people’s choice,” said Meryl Graham, a Santa Ana administrative assistant who is opposed to the airport. “Government officials like to make decisions for us. But this is too crucial an issue.”

Airport supporter Jennifer Galvin, 26, agreed.

“I think that this one should be the definitive” vote, the Anaheim nursing student said. “We need to have one [plan] or the other.”

The poll results are significant, pollster Katz said, because they represent the first time in the four-year airport debate that county voters have been given the chance to compare and voice opinions on specific plans.

“The plans to build an airport are really rolling along, and yet people are not satisfied with them,” she said. Residents “have not really been presented with a solid alternative [to the airport] in the history of this debate, and they are finding [alternatives] attractive.”

Poll results fall short of sounding a death knell for public support of the airport idea.

Asked whether they favored or opposed the concept of an airport at El Toro, Orange County respondents remain deeply divided, with 43% in favor of the proposed airport and 44% against, a percentage that mirrors the result from a Times Orange County Poll conducted nearly two years ago.

Asked to choose one option for the future of the Marine base, scheduled to close in July 1999, 47% of voters tabbed the Millennium Plan. Still, that represents a plurality, not a majority, and is barely more than the 43% who picked one of the four airport plans. Remaining voters were either undecided or liked none of the plans.

If anything, some airport supporters say, the poll results are a condemnation of the way county staff has been selling the airport plan to the public.

“The county needs to simplify the message and make it understandable,” said Newport Beach Mayor Thomas C. Edwards, an airport advocate. “They are going to get hoisted on their petard if they don’t communicate the message properly.”

“Orange County has outgrown John Wayne [Airport], and I think we need another airport,” said Moonyean Kistler, a La Habra homemaker. “We’ve got Disneyland and Knott’s Berry Farm in this area. . . . It would help tourism to have an airport there.”

South County residents such as Truman Hinkle of Laguna Niguel, a retired broadcaster, said that the noise and traffic of an airport would be unbearable--and that South County residents would bear the brunt of it.

“We live on the final approach path, and I can imagine what it will be like to have hundreds of planes a day flying around here,” Hinkle said. “Even the few [military] planes we get now can be annoying.”

The Times’ telephone survey of 600 registered voters was conducted May 14 to 17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The county is expected to finalize its airport plans sometime in fall 1999. In 1994, voters narrowly approved Measure A, which changed the county’s general plan to include an airport at the base. In 1996, Measure S--an initiative to overturn Measure A--failed by a wide margin.

In December 1996, in one of the most controversial decisions in the history of the county, the supervisors approved a preliminary airport plan.

Despite the two initiatives and the board decision, the debate has only grown hotter.

The airport has divided the county like no other issue, creating a fissure along north and south lines, loading the local political debate with vitriol.

Some divisions are clearly cut along north-south boundaries, with 69% of South County residents opposing an airport and 36% opposing it in the North.

Airport Issue Affecting Supervisor Campaigns

The Board of Supervisors is also split on the issue, with the majority--Supervisors Charles V. Smith, William G. Steiner and Jim Silva--in support of an international airport, while Tom Wilson and Todd Spitzer--both of whom represent South County constituents--oppose it.

The airport is a hot-button election issue this year with both pro- and anti-airport candidates competing for three open seats on the Board of Supervisors. Steiner is retiring, and Wilson and Silva are up for reelection in the June 2 primary.

Even though poll results show that voters will not choose a candidate based solely on the airport issue, only 27% of county residents approve of the way the board and county staff are handling the El Toro project.

“The board is not a top-notch quality group,” said Ruth Twombly of Santa Ana, who said she supports an airport at El Toro. “I don’t think they are doing their jobs. They should be a little more forthright in how much it will cost and what the process is.”

Added Harald Martin, an Anaheim police officer and airport supporter: “I feel they make a pronouncement one day and then run for cover the next.”

Supervisor Smith agreed that the county needs to improve its performance.

The results are “disappointing but not surprising,” Smith said. “We have done a terrible job of getting the message out to the public to let them know what is happening. I agree with the majority.”

The poll results were a vindication of sorts for South County officials who have maintained that the airport plan is not a done deal. Waging an almost quixotic battle, they have attacked the airport plan on several fronts, including in the courtroom, on the airwaves and on their political soapbox--without much success.

“This says volumes about the Millennium Plan, and we’ve only been out there with it for two months,” said Irvine Councilman Mike Ward, an airport opponent. “Maybe the board will now actually start listening to their voters.”

The Millennium Plan, which includes plans for a large regional park resembling San Francisco’s Golden Gate Park as its centerpiece, is the county government’s preferred non-aviation alternative in case a “fatal flaw” is found in the airport plans.

The plan was put together by the El Toro Reuse Planning Authority, a coalition of seven anti-airport cities in South County. However, it appears unlikely that a fatal flaw will be found in the airport plan, especially as there is no consensus on what would constitute a “fatal flaw.”

Those polled who support the Millennium Plan say Orange County needs a central park to ward off development.

“It’s important to extend the amount of open space and green space because development in Orange County just goes on and on,” said Warren Corey, a retired journalist also from Laguna Niguel.

Those who support the airport plan warned that the Millennium Plan might be a pie-in-the-sky proposal.

“They say it’s going to be this flowering, wonderful commercial project,” said Rich Kolander, a retired engineer from Huntington Beach. “But the question is whether all those things can really be built. A lot of the time, those types of developments run into trouble.”

Newport Beach Mayor Edwards goes one step further, saying that, once a serious analysis is done on the Millennium Plan, it will crumble.

“If you look at it, and if you analyze it and ask relevant questions, it is all puff,” he said. “They have not analyzed the land cost, the conversion cost. They can stand up and say they have one plan and run with it. It is easy for people to get excited about that.”

North County Agrees Noise Is a Problem

Poll results raised several tough challenges for the county.

Respondents who oppose an airport at El Toro said their biggest concerns were over the jet noise the project would bring--an issue county planners have never been able to answer easily. Even among North County voters, nearly two-thirds said the airport would create excessive noise for nearby communities.

Last fall, a Superior Court judge ruled that the county’s environmental impact report was inadequate in addressing traffic, noise and pollution. The county is redoing parts of the report.

None of the four airport proposals that county planners released in April were well received in the poll.

The county’s so-called preferred plan--which had the highest voter approval rating of all the plans--garnered only 38% approval and was opposed by 53%, with 9% undecided. This proposal also includes a plan for a high-speed “people mover” train that would transfer passengers from El Toro to John Wayne Airport and is estimated to cost at least $300 million. Voters were about evenly split on whether the people mover was a good idea.

Retired engineer Kolander said he supports Option C because it is a medium-sized airport that doesn’t overwhelm the South County with planes.

“It’s the easiest one to sell,” he said. “I am not sure if Orange County needs a huge airport. You have to crawl before you walk. If we build this airport, and there is demand for more flights, we can expand it.”

Among the four proposals, the plan that would create the largest airport, putting 33 million annual passengers at El Toro and closing John Wayne Airport to commercial flights, was the most disliked, with a whopping 84% opposed countywide.

Airport Would Benefit Economy, Most Agree

Despite distaste for the individual plans, three in four voters believe that an airport would create jobs and benefit the county’s economy, a sentiment predominant in the North at 77% and the South at 62%.

“An airport would be an economic engine for Orange County,” said police officer Martin. “I think it will bring jobs, prosperity and a better way of life for people.”

Nonetheless, voters think Orange County will succeed even if an airport is not built.

Only 32% think Orange County would suffer if an airport were not built at the surplus military base; 59% do not think the county would face problems down the road.

Voters also are questioning whether an airport is the only financially attractive option. Today, only 45% agree that a new airport is the most fiscally sound use of the base; a similar 41% disagree. Two years ago, a majority believed that an airport made the most financial sense for the base.

With such a large margin of voters in favor of a new referendum, both airport opponents and supporters said “bring it on.”

“If they want to have another initiative, let’s have another initiative,” said Mayor Edwards of Newport Beach. “If we win the third time, is that going to be it?”

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Baldassare Associates. The random telephone survey of 600 registered voters in Orange County was conducted May 14-17. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4%. That means the results are within four percentage points of what they would be if all Orange County registered voters were interviewed. For subgroups, such as North and South County, the margin of error would be larger.

For analysis of opinion in North and South County, Newport Beach is included in the North. South is defined as Irvine and south.

Revisiting El Toro

Two voters in three think the county should have another chance to vote on whether to put a commercial airport at El Toro Marine Corps Air Station. The feeling is even more pronounced in South County.

* In the past four years, there have been two countywide initiatives in which a majority of voters supported having a commercial airport at El Toro. Do you favor or oppose holding a new election and putting the El Toro Airport decision before voters again?

*--*

Total North South Favor 65% 63% 72% Oppose 31 34 24 Don’t know 4 3 4

*--*

Source: Times Orange County Poll

Voters Ground Airport Options

None of the four airport plans considered by the Board of Supervisors sparks voters. Instead, a majority of respondents embraces the Millennium Plan--a mixed-use proposal with no airport.

* An alternative plan for the El Toro Marine base has been proposed, which does not include an airport. Called the Millennium Plan, this proposal would transform the El Toro base into a park surrounded by homes, a business and technology center with a university campus and a stadium.

Millennium Plan

*--*

Total North South Favor 56% 50% 73% Oppose 37 41 25 Don’t know 7 9 2

*--*

Airport Size

Plan A: Limits El Toro mainly to domestic flights; 19 million annual passenger capacity; John Wayne Airport remains open with capacity reduced to 6 million passengers per year

Plan B: International airport with annual capacity of 28.8 million passengers; John Wayne Airport remains open but reduced to 5.4 million passengers

Plan C: 25 million passengers per year; El Toro Airport would handle long-distance and international flights and John Wayne short-haul hops; airports linked by people-mover rail system; John Wayne increased to 9.5 million passengers

Plan D: International airport at El Toro with 33.5 million passengers; John Wayne closed to commercial flights

*--*

Plan A Plan B Plan C Plan D Favor 32% 28% 38% 10% Oppose 55 62 53 84 Don’t know 13 10 9 6

*--*

Assessing the Impact

Just one voter in three thinks the lack of a commercial airport will hurt Orange County. Voters are split, though, on whether it makes the most economic sense. There is widespread agreement it would improve the local economy while creating excessive noise for those living nearby.

Agree or disagree: Without a commercial airport at El Toro, Orange County will suffer in the long-term.

*--*

Total North South Agree 32% 36% 22% Disagree 59 54 73 Don’t know 9 10 5

*--*

* A commercial airport at El Toro is the most fiscally sound use of the Marine air base, that is, it will cost Orange County taxpayers less to develop and will generate more tax revenues than any other possible future uses.

*--*

Total North South Agree 45% 51% 29% Disagree 41 33 63 Don’t know 14 16 8

*--*

* A commercial airport at El Toro will create excessive noise for residents living in the surrounding communities.

*--*

Total North South Agree 69% 64% 83% Disagree 26 31 14 Don’t know 5 5 3

*--*

* A commercial airport at El Toro will create jobs and improve the Orange County economy.

*--*

z Total North South Agree 73% 77% 62% Disagree 21 16 35 Don’t know 6 7 3

*--*

Not a Good Issue

El Toro is not a winning issue for county supervisors. They don’t get much credit for the way they have handled the issue, and just one voter in five would vote for a candidate who supports an airport. The issue cuts deepest in South County and among those who oppose an El Toro conversion.

* Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the Orange County Board of Supervisors and staff are handling the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station issue?

*--*

Favor Oppose Total North South airport airport Approve 27% 29% 21% 42% 14% Disapprove 46 40 60 30 64 Don’t know 27 31 19 28 22

*--*

* Would you be inclined or not inclined to vote for a candidate for the Orange County Board of Supervisors who favors having a commercial airport at El Toro, or does this make no difference to you?

*--*

Favor Oppose Total North South airport airport Inclined to vote 21% 23% 13% 44% 2% Not inclined to vote 33 25 58 4 68 No difference 44 49 28 50 29 Don’t know 2 3 1 2 1

*--*

Source: Times Orange County Poll