Live chat with Andrew Malcolm and Don Frederick

2008-01-16 11:02:30.0 Administrator2: Hi folks, and welcome to the Politics Chat with Don Frederick, Andrew Malcolm and Johanna Neuman!

2008-01-16 11:02:52.0 Administrator2: It’s been an interesting campaign year to say the least! What’s on your mind?

2008-01-16 11:02:57.0 gdk: Question: What do you think should be the next move of the Obama campaign given the NH loss? Does he keep sending out the same message of hope, does he need to sharpen his arguments and go after HC in the same way that she has gone after him? Does he pretend that NH is just a blip in the “Obama juggernaut”?

2008-01-16 11:05:09.0 Johanna Neuman: GDK: I think he needs to sharpen the case for himself, not sharpen attacks on Clinton. He’s coming across, to many rank-and-file party members, as too vague.

2008-01-16 11:06:12.0 Don Frederick: GDK: Actually, that last message was from Don Frederick (didn’t realize I was typing on Johanna’s machine. What you think?

2008-01-16 11:07:18.0 Andrew Malcolm: I agree with Johanna. He needs to keep on keeping on. He’s in a good position in to do very well in SC. And 60% of Dem blacks in Mich voted uncommitted which would not seem to be a sign of strong support when they could have voted for Hillary. So we’ll see if there are any hard feelings ove the recent racial discussion among SC black voters.

2008-01-16 11:07:19.0 SF Kyle: Mr. Malcolm, I’ve been enjoying your blog, especially the coverage of the Ron Paul Revolution. Such objective and nuanced coverage from the MSM is rare indeed. What would it take to get some of your work in the print edition, where it is sorely needed?

2008-01-16 11:09:13.0 Andrew Malcolm: Each week the print edition publishes some blog excerpts in the print edition, but to be honest I think our reach is greater online. We’re getting thousands of new readers and our items stay there forever folr reading at ANY time instead of lining the bottom of a parakeet cage by tmw afternoon. and thanks for your kind\ words. The Romn Paul and his followers story is a fascinating one.

2008-01-16 11:10:21.0 Johanna Neuman: andy, does ron paul have any delegates?

2008-01-16 11:12:01.0 Andrew Malcolm: I’m not sure. He got 0 in Wyoming, but unsure of the proportional distribution in individual states like NH where he got like 8% and beat Fred Thompson, having beaten Giuliani in Iowa. Now in Mich he beat them both.

2008-01-16 11:12:41.0 Don Frederick: Our handy-dandy feature on the politics page, the primary tracker, shows he has Done.

2008-01-16 11:13:00.0 Don Frederick: That should be “none.”

2008-01-16 11:13:10.0 Andrew Malcolm: Good one, Don. Where can peopl,e find that feature?

2008-01-16 11:13:29.0 Andy: Is that true that Guiliani is in a three-way tie in Florida?

2008-01-16 11:15:19.0 Don Frederick: Andy: The race in Florida is up for grabs now -- actually a four-way race among McCain, Rudy, Huckabee and Romney.

2008-01-16 11:15:52.0 Andy: Do you think that he’s Done if he loses Florida?

2008-01-16 11:16:13.0 Andrew Malcolm: I’ve heard it’s tightening down there. Owise things cudn’t look better for Rudy with no one other GOPer gaining steam. Ideally he wanted the early states to split among other repubs and they did.

2008-01-16 11:16:37.0 Don Frederick: Absolutely. I think he will do poorly even in the NY primary, a week later, if he loses Florida.

2008-01-16 11:17:10.0 Andy: I would think that a split early and low numbers in Flordia would be very bad for him. Possibly great for Romney and particularly for McCain

2008-01-16 11:17:43.0 Andrew Malcolm: If Rudy loses Fla he’s in Big Trouble. And tho he claims to be ok financially, hios top staff is unpaid this month. So he cud be in trouble. I wonder about Fred T’s future too after SC

2008-01-16 11:17:48.0 Johanna Neuman: Don’s last answer makes me wonder: was rudy’s florida-or-die strategy smart or was it his execution that was flawed?

2008-01-16 11:18:32.0 Andy: It seems like if you are the front-runner nationally and no one hears anything from you through the first 5 states, it was a flawed strategy

2008-01-16 11:19:08.0 Don Frederick: Rudy’s strategy evolved into a do-or-die situation in Florida. He thought he’d do much better in New Hamp.

2008-01-16 11:19:46.0 Andy: What are your thoughts on why he did so badly?

2008-01-16 11:21:28.0 Andrew Malcolm: Well, for a long time remember we all wondered how come he was leading nationally so well when his social ideas were so liberal for mainstream Repubs. This may be catching up to him. Also you know you just haven’t heard his name thru these early states so he seems to be irrelevant. Not really but out of the opicture being beaten by Ron Paul. That’s got to hurt your pride. if not fundraising.

2008-01-16 11:21:47.0 Dennis: Have you guys been watching the questions that have been rising to the top on the politico.com website for the L.A. Times-sponsored debates which are happening at the end of this month? If so, what is with all the questions dealing with either “space exploration” or “Marriage Education”?

2008-01-16 11:23:08.0 Andrew Malcolm: You know, I’ve been so busy handling the 10,000 comments on our blog I haven’t checked those out. Guess that’s why they do them in advance to weed some out

2008-01-16 11:23:16.0 Madison: Hasn’t the fairly consistent showings for McCain and Romney shown that Huckabee is a marginal candidate? And to whom will they throw support when he realizes he can’t finish on top?

2008-01-16 11:23:50.0 Don Frederick: A couple of things on why Rudy did poor;y in NH -- declining to contend in Iowa REALLY took him out of the news mix in December, thereby hurting him in NH. Also, the voters there that he had potential appeal to ended up going for McCain, who obviously competed much more aggressively there. And, when Rudy was in the news in December, it concerned how his office expense accounted his trips to see his mistress. Ouch!!!

2008-01-16 11:25:37.0 SF Kyle: I Don’t care how many delegates Ron Paul has, come November he gets my vote even if I have to write his name on the ballot. This isn’t an office football pool. I will not be railroaded into “getting behind the winner.”

2008-01-16 11:25:57.0 Andrew Malcolm: Huckabee touches a minority strain in the GOP of social concerns. It’s a good one and one that helped him get elected sevl times in Demo Ark. I’ve always suspected he was running for VP. If you have a pres cand from the West (McCain) or the NE (Romney or Giuliani), a Southern Baptist who’s been successful in a Dem state is not a bad choice.

2008-01-16 11:26:24.0 Don Frederick: Madison: Yes, the Huckabee “surge” in Iowa doesn’t seem to be growing. Decent showings in SC and Fla are key for him. It’s amazing, still, that he muscled his way into this race. But his effort to appeal to non-evangelicals thru a semi-populist economic message shows little sign of taking hold.

2008-01-16 11:27:34.0 Johanna Neuman: speaking of veep, has anyone contemplated the possibilities -- would mccain ask huckabee? would romney?

2008-01-16 11:27:56.0 Andrew Malcolm: To me the way Ron Paul has drawn into political involvement many who haven’t been before is a grand story. And I haven’t seen their passion matched yet this yr. It’s good for the mix. Sorry that Fox News banned him in NH but glad he made the cut in SC. He’s the only GOPer for instance who opposes the war so can force some discussion in that area that the Repubs other than McCain might like to avoid.

2008-01-16 11:28:08.0 Don Frederick: Kyle, you broach a point I’ve been wondering about. What does Ron Paul (and his supporters) do about November. He seems to be leaving a little wiggle room lately, in terms of an independent run.

2008-01-16 11:29:17.0 Andrew Malcolm: Paul will certainly have some money. he was the lgst GOP fundraiser in the 4th qtr and has raised another $900,000 or so so far this month.

2008-01-16 11:30:18.0 Andy: It seems like Guiliani really botched the first couple of big campaign decisions. I think if Huckabee drops out, then his supporters go to Romney because he has converted to their social issues

2008-01-16 11:30:25.0 Andy: He has to run as an indepenent. Who else would his supporters get behind? I think no one

2008-01-16 11:31:39.0 Don Frederick: Andy, yes, I think the McCain folkd would like Huck to stay in the race for as long as possible -- certainly thru feb. 5 -- for the reason u cite.

2008-01-16 11:32:03.0 Andrew Malcolm: What do folks think about the Dems? Is this racial fight over?

2008-01-16 11:32:13.0 Dennis: I agree that Huckabee’s supporters would go to Romney - especially since they each have such a pro-family/pro-marriage stance.

2008-01-16 11:32:24.0 SF Kyle: Paul has said he has no plans for a 3rd party run. Of course we all hope he will change his mind. Regardless, just think of all the bright young people who he is inspiring to get into politics. This movement is just beginning.

2008-01-16 11:33:22.0 Andrew Malcolm: Kyle, I hope you’re right. History would suggest owise, that the enthusiasm will fade without significant successes to feed on. But the involvement of fresh people, energies and ideas is grand.

2008-01-16 11:33:25.0 Jeanie: I agree with Dennis. I think the Republican ticket needs to address social issues, especially the huge divorce rate in our country.

2008-01-16 11:34:41.0 Dennis: I agree, Jeanie; I think the first candidate to offer a viable solution to that problem will gain a REAL advantage.

2008-01-16 11:35:01.0 Andrew Malcolm: The Repubs who have been successful have Done just that, Jeanie. shown an interest in more than small business concerns. Think romney hits a resonant note with his family talk--and example.

2008-01-16 11:35:11.0 Andy: I think any candidate that says he can do anything about the divorce rate is full of it

2008-01-16 11:35:30.0 Don Frederick: Jeanie (and others focused on the GOP race), I’m curious about something. If McCain is the nominee, do you feel like he adequately addresses the social issues. His voting record is solidly conservative on that front, but clearly it’s not his main interest.

2008-01-16 11:35:58.0 Jeanie: Not necessarily, Andy. There is a lot of evidence that Marriage Education programs really help couples.

2008-01-16 11:36:39.0 Dennis: Yes, Andrew, I think that Romney hits a HIGHLY resonant note with his emphasis on family - and more importantly, how he “walks the walk” in that area.

2008-01-16 11:37:03.0 Andy: I suppose so, but how can a Republican seriously talk about spending fed money on marriage councelling?

2008-01-16 11:37:21.0 Andrew Malcolm: Yers, Dennis. And it seems to me we often underestimate the power of example. And role models in public life.

2008-01-16 11:37:24.0 Andy: I understand that his personal example is strong, but that seems too nanny-state to me

2008-01-16 11:38:09.0 Jeanie: There’s a big difference between Marriage Counseling and Marriage Education, Andy. First of all, the cost for Marriage Education is way less. Also, it’s a strong preventive approach.

2008-01-16 11:38:56.0 Abe Lincoln: But marriage education and marriage counseling is not supposed to be a federal responsibility. The 10th Amendment leaves that to the states. It seems like Fred Thompson understands that.

2008-01-16 11:39:15.0 Andrew Malcolm: The preventive approach is something we could use a whole lot more in man y areas--schools, personal health, marriage counseling, etc. We spend so much time on curing obesity for instance. What about preventing it in the first place?

2008-01-16 11:39:44.0 Johanna Neuman: now be honest, abe....(just kidding)

2008-01-16 11:39:59.0 Abe Lincoln: Maybe states should. But the 10th Amendment says the federal government shouldn.t

2008-01-16 11:40:20.0 Andrew Malcolm: Well, Abe Lincoln wouldn’t know about marriage counseling. He had a looney for a wife.

2008-01-16 11:40:26.0 Administrator2: So, Andrew, Don and Johanna: is there any truth to the suggestion I’ve heard that Democrat voters put Romney over the top in Michigan? As in, that they voted in the Republican primary for Romney as a strategic move?

2008-01-16 11:40:34.0 Dennis: I agree, Andrew, and if marriage education can prevent marriages from falling apart, then it seems to me that would save the taxpayers TONS of money!

2008-01-16 11:40:48.0 SF Kyle: Govt-run Marriage Counseling Programs? Can we first stop the racist, imperialist march to Empire? 190 countries on the planet we have military bases in 130 of them.

2008-01-16 11:40:55.0 Jeanie: Abe, the thing is, the government gets involved in every marriage that fails. It costs a ton to help pick up after divorce--higher medical, less productivity at work, lots more people on welfare, problems with kids, etc. Preventing this is much easier than paying for the mess caused by divorce.

2008-01-16 11:41:03.0 Andy: Right as they say “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure,” however, if the Republican race devolves into talking about marriages, I will be very dissapointed

2008-01-16 11:41:56.0 Andrew Malcolm: Dennis, just think of the impact of broken families on so many facets of US life--school work, crime, joblessness, literacy, child abuse, etc etc It’s overwhelming and i was plsd to hear Obama speak to this briefly the other night specifically regarding black fathers taking responsibility for heir offspring.

2008-01-16 11:42:12.0 Jeanie: Republicans should talk about marriage--everybody in this country is affected by marriage, one way or another--whether you’re in one, not in one, raised in one, not raised in one.

2008-01-16 11:42:56.0 Don Frederick: As for Dems and Romney, there was a push by the liberal blogs for that to happen, but from the poll numbers I’ve loooked at, the effect was marginal. He won because he appealed more than the others to core Republicans, ran a strong campaign in the last couple of days and had the big benefit of his family name in the state.

2008-01-16 11:43:04.0 Dennis: I agree Andrew. It seems that both parties claim to place a value on “family values”. Maybe this “marriage education” approach could be a way to actually DO something about it!!?!??

2008-01-16 11:43:39.0 Andrew Malcolm: Romney’s talk ed a lot about marriage but Rudy won’t. Guess why? He’s on Nol. 3. So it depends. But talkijng marriage in mich would have cost Romney this primary/. he needed to do economics. That’s what’s so good about the primary preocess, it forces candidates to learn and speak to a variety of issues impt regionally. But nowadays that process is so crammed.

2008-01-16 11:44:18.0 Andy: If I was voting in MI to sabotage the Republicans, I wouldn’t go for Romney. Maybe for Rudy, for the exact reason Andrew just put forth

2008-01-16 11:44:54.0 Andy: Romney is a strong candidate, if for nothing else than he looks presidential and seems to know not to mess around on his wife

2008-01-16 11:45:05.0 Dennis: Huckabee has also talked about marriage pretty strongly - I thought he handled the question about that topic rather well in the last debate - came across very balanced and thoughtful

2008-01-16 11:45:21.0 Abe Lincoln: Don/Johanna: Did illegal immigration resonate as an issue in Michigan? It seems like Romney could make for some serious populist hay by hammering big biz for hiring illegals at low wages, thus depressing the wages of working class Americans. What do you think?

2008-01-16 11:45:48.0 Andrew Malcolm: I expected more Demo cross over to make Repub mischief in Mich. But the independents seemed to favor McCain, but only marginally not like overwhelmingly like in NH in 2000.

2008-01-16 11:46:03.0 Dennis: Andy, Romney also has an MBA and a Law Degree from Harvard - so he’s really quite smart - in addition to not messing around on his wife. :-)

2008-01-16 11:46:19.0 Andy: This question wasn’t directed to me, but if Romney goes that route, he will get hammered because he made his fortune off of low-wage workers

2008-01-16 11:46:21.0 Jeanie: Yes, Andy. Not messing around on your wife is a good start!

2008-01-16 11:46:26.0 Andy: That’s right, he is quite smart

2008-01-16 11:47:10.0 Andrew Malcolm: And the problem in Mich was not so much WHO you’re hiring as that so many were being FIRFED, highest unemployment rate in the country, 7.4% I believe.

2008-01-16 11:47:25.0 Andrew Malcolm: Make that FIRED.

2008-01-16 11:47:32.0 Don Frederick: I didn’t get the sense, from watching the ebb and flow of the Mich campaign, that the immig issue was as prominent as in Iowa and NH. I think the economic problems there are much more structural. And Romney was successful in addressing that -- or, at least, showing his empathy for it. Good question, btw.

2008-01-16 11:47:55.0 Administrator2: So what Republican candidate has the edge at present? Does Romney, coming off yesterday’s win? McCain? Huckabee? Or is it a free-for-all?

2008-01-16 11:47:57.0 Andy: Have to run, but thanks for the conversation all

2008-01-16 11:48:07.0 Administrator2: Thanks, Andy!

2008-01-16 11:48:35.0 Andrew Malcolm: McCain looked really out of touch (tho straight talking) to stress so much that those Mich jobs are NOT coming back. He changed his emphasis near the end but too late.

2008-01-16 11:49:16.0 Dennis: If Romney can keep the conversation on the economy, he is in good shape. His track record in the business world is AMAZING. (I am thinking about the LA Times article that discusses this a couple weeks ago.)

2008-01-16 11:49:42.0 Johanna Neuman: andrew, yes, mccain was guilty of a little too much straight talk, Don’t you think?

2008-01-16 11:50:20.0 Andrew Malcolm: To me the GOP race seems wide open. somebody needs to build some momentum and so far no one has. Dennis you’re right on. The econ has emergwed as a key issue. Who’d have though say 7 months ago that we wouldn’t even be talking abt the Iraq war much, except the Dems assuring their crowd that they would pull out as qkly as possible.

2008-01-16 11:50:22.0 Jeanie: I still think McCain might have the edge. Then, maybe Romney as Veep as he’s got the domestic experience.

2008-01-16 11:50:45.0 Don Frederick: Gosh, on the GOP race, it’s hard to see as anything but a free-for-all. Romney riding (semi) high today, but what if he reverts to also-ran status in SC and Fla?

2008-01-16 11:51:38.0 Jeanie: I think the Dems need to assure voters how and when they’ll end the war. I think Democrats really want it ended.

2008-01-16 11:51:59.0 Andrew Malcolm: Romney has spent a lot of m oney on ads in SC. He stopped briefly but now has resumed. Over the summer you could actually trace his % rising by the ads over a 2 wk period. He’s got the money to continue if he wants. In for $15 mil in for $25 million.

2008-01-16 11:52:02.0 Dennis: Personally, I would LOVE a McCain/Romney ticket . Let McCain handle all the foreign affairs issues and let Romney turn his Bain brainpower on our domestic problems. That combination could be terrific!

2008-01-16 11:52:30.0 Administrator2: It’s about time to wrap it up, folks, but thanks so much for coming to today’s chat! If you missed any of it, a transcript will be available later today at www.latimes.com/politics.

2008-01-16 11:52:33.0 Johanna Neuman: We’d like to invite all of you to join us the next time our Top of the Ticket bloggers do a live chat. Mark your calendars for Wednesday Jan. 30 at 11 a.m. Pacific, the day after the Florida Primary. What a year!

2008-01-16 11:52:59.0 Andrew Malcolm: And keep checking out the blog at www.latimes.com/topoftheticket

2008-01-16 11:53:08.0 Administrator2: Have a great day, all!

2008-01-16 11:53:13.0 Don Frederick: Dennis, the vibe between the two -- at least the vibe emanating from McCain -- has been pretty nasty. But stranger combinations have occurred.

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