Racing! Rob Henie is back with a handicapping lesson

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we talk about a race in Fresno.

Sure, Santa Anita has a massive 11-race program with three stakes races and some pretty good horses. But, as good as that sounds, I think the most interesting story is about 200 miles to the north at the Fresno Fair Meet.

Now, that’s not to say that I’ve got a ticket punched to go to Fresno. I mean there are limits to what I’ll do for you newsletter readers. I haven’t been to Fresno since Boyd Grant was coaching the Bulldogs.

Now, this is normally where I would make a comment that I would have to be a masochist to go to Fresno. But, I’m not going to stoop to such an obvious word play and easy transition to the next paragraph.

Instead, I’ll jump right in and talk about the return of Grade 1 winner Masochistic, who has more story lines than the pilot of the new ABC show “A Million Little Things.”

Let’s start with his first race, a maiden special weight at Santa Anita. He finished fifth but a post-race drug test showed he had an excessive amount of a tranquilizer in his system. A.C. Avila, his trainer, was fined $10,000 and suspended for 60 days.

In his second race at Churchill Downs, he won by 14 lengths as the 2-1 favorite. However, a Kentucky commissioner called for an investigation into a possible betting coup on the race.

He then went on to win five of his next six races including the Grade 1 Triple Bend Stakes

Then fast forward a year to 2016 where he finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint but was disqualified for having a microscopic amount of a legal steroid in his system. There were extenuating circumstances that, if common sense prevailed, would have exonerated trainer Ron Ellis. But, he was suspended for 60 days and a $10,000 fine.

Masochistic ran four more times before the owners decided to retire the 8-year-old gelding and make him a trail horse. But Masochistic would have none of it.

“He does not enjoy just being turned out,” trainer Kristin Mulhall told Jeremy Balan of the Bloodhorse in August. “He does not enjoy being a pet. He did not enjoy not doing anything, basically. He’s not going to be a trail horse unless you plan on match racing.”

You can read Jeremy’s full story by clicking here.

So, Masochistic is out of retirement, which brings us to the seventh race today in Fresno. It’s a six-furlong race and he is the 7-5 favorite in the $100,000 Harris Farms Stakes.

I hope he wins.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the second race at Santa Anita. Rob, take it away.

“This is a bottom level maiden $20,000 claimer at 6 ½ furlongs. When looking at this low level here in So. Cal, we need to understand, most are either not talented, and/or strapped with physical issues, with many trying this same level over and over to no avail. So, unless they move to a new circuit, this is the their basement home. Those who show they’re doing something DIFFERENT, usually catch my eye right off the bat. With that in mind, top selection is BIG BASE (#8). He strings races together for the first time in 2018, which coincides with Jerry Hollendorfer sending him to So Cal, only making his fourth lifetime start which leaves plenty of room to form GOOD habits. It means passing runners and being competitive against multiple losers who become CONTENT running alongside others. With PEACHY (#7), we can rationalize, it’s still early in his career as well, shortening up off the stamina building effort, also noting, this is his first time over this Santa Anita course.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“WCHR Maiden Power Rating: - 5.00 (very poor group)

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 8-7

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 3,4,5

“Negative Notes:

“6 Veiled Heat - 0 for 20 with the majority at this same bottom level, even bet in many races. What’s the definition of INSANITY? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

“TOP PICK: BIG BASE (#8 3-1 A Espinoza)

“SECOND CHOICE: PEACHY (#7 5-2 Ceballos)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Friday’s feature was a $51,000 allowance on the turf going 1 1/8 miles. The winner was Andesh for trainer Phil D’Amato. In a pre-race interview on TVG, he talked about making excuses for the horse’s last two losses. First it was quarantine and then he got boxed in. On Friday, he got a 1 ½ length win.

“I’ve been waiting to see this race from him ever since I got him,” D’Amato told Mike Willman of Santa Anita after the race. “We were able to save ground and when [jockey] Flavien [Prat] angled him out, he flew home.”

Andesh paid $6.00, $4.00 and $2.80. Risky Proposition was second and Epical was third.

Santa Anita preview

It is a huge card of 11 races with a first post of 12:30 p.m. (It should be noon with that many races.) There are five turf races, three stakes and three allowance races. Not as good as last Saturday, but still pretty strong.

The first stake is the $100,000 Speakeasy Stakes for 2-year-olds going five furlongs. The favorite, at 2-1, is shipper Mae Never No, who has won two of his three starts including a seven-length win last out. Wesley Ward is the trainer and Gary Stevens, who rode the colt in his first two starts at Belmont, is the jockey. Hartel is at 5-2, having won only once in four races but that win came at five furlongs. The post is around 2:05 p.m.

It’s followed by the five-horse Grade 1 $300,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship. It’s a six-furlong race with two headliners. Roy H, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, is the 6-5 favorite for Peter Miller and Paco Lopez. Kent Desormeaux rode the 6-year-old gelding the past five times but was taken off for this race. Roy H has won seven of 20 lifetime and five of 10 at Santa Anita. His last start was a second in the Bing Crosby by 2 ¼ lengths.

That race was won by Ransom the Moon, who is the 7-5 second choice for D’Amato and Prat. He has won six of 24 races and two of five at Santa Anita. Post is about 2:40 p.m.

The final stake of the day is the Grade 2 $200,000 City of Hope Mile. Sharp Samurai, who has won five of eight at Santa Anita and seven of 13 lifetime, is the 2-1 favorite. He has a first, second and third this year, with the win coming in an allowance. Mark Glatt is the trainer and Stevens the rider.

Fly to Mars is the 5-2 second choice. He was second in the Del Mar Mile Handicap, one spot in front of Sharp Samurai. He’s won four of nine at Santa Anita and five of 15 lifetime. He’s trained by Miller and will be ridden by Prat. Post is about 4:45 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10, 9, 6, 7, 5, 10, 9, 13, 9, 14, 12 (2 also eligible).

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:30 Keeneland (6): Grade 2 $200,000 Woodford Stakes, 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorites: Holding Gold, Will Call (4-1)

12:50 Belmont (7): $150,000 Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational, 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Disco Partner (2-1)

1:04 Parx (8): $100,000 Plum Pretty Stakes, Penn-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Rose Tree (8-5)

1:05 Keeneland (7): Grade 2 $250,000 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Miss Sunset (3-1)

1:25 Belmont (8): Grade 1 $400,000 Beldame Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Wow Cat (5-2)

1:40 Keeneland (8): Grade 1 $400,000 First Lady Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Quidura (2-1)

1:49 Woodbine (8): Grade 3 $125,000 Mazarine Stakes, 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Tiz Breathtaking (2-1)

2:00 Belmont (9): Grade 2 $500,000 Hill Prince Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Raging Bull (6-5)

2:05 Santa Anita (4): $100,000 Speakeasy Stakes, 2-year-olds, 5 furlongs. Favorite: Mae Never No (2-1)

2:14 Keeneland (9): Grade 1 $500,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Mind Control (7-2)

2:35 Belmont (10): Grade 1 $500,000 Champagne Stakes, 2-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Complexity (5-2)

2:38 Santa Anita (5): Grade 1 $300,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Roy H (6-5)

2:49 Keeneland (10): Grade 1 $1,000,000 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Heart to Heart (7-2)

4:29 Fresno (7): $100,000 Harris Farms Stakes, Cal-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Masochistic (7-5)

4:44 Santa Anita (9): Grade 2 $200,000 City of Hope Mile Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Sharp Samurai (2-1)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

ELEVENTH RACE: No. 11 Noble Contessa (6-1)

Juvenile filly from the red-hot Michael McCarthy barn shortens up after showing speed and tiring in two route attempts at Del Mar, including a stakes race last time. Drawn well outside with tactical speed and back in with maidens, she can spring a minor surprise in the nightcap.

Friday’s result: Dearborn (2-1), who was bet strongly late, got a perfect trip but was outkicked late by the winner and narrowly missed second in the second race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 7 Looking Quick (5-2)

Trainer Yanet Rodriguez has done well with first-out claims, especially when she shows confidence with significant class hikes. I loved the gate speed this gelding showed in his last 1 ¼-length victory when claimed for $8,000 and now surfaces for $20,000. He also draws the comfortable far outside post and is one of only two multiple winners in this field.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

MIZ TIANJIN stalked three deep then outside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch, drifted in and took the lead outside a rival in midstretch and won clear under urging. FORTHENINETEEN close up stalking the pace between horses then a bit of the rail on the turn, angled to the inside into the stretch, came out past midstretch and gained the place. TUSCANY BEAUTY sent between horses early, dueled inside, inched away into the stretch, fought back along the rail in midstretch and bested the others. CHIEFS LIL PEARL dueled between horses then outside a rival on the turn, came out some in the stretch and weakened. C. R. GOLDEN QUEEN dropped back off the rail early, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. LOVELY LINDA prompted the pace three deep then stalked off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. BALLERINA HEADLINE saved ground stalking the pace throughout and weakened in the stretch.

OLEKSANDRA (AUS) broke a bit slowly then steadied when squeezed, settled just off the rail then inside leaving the hill, went around a rival past midstretch and rallied inside under urging to get up nearing the wire. MAGICAL GRAY sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace just off the rail and held on well but was caught late between foes. DEARBORN stalked off the rail then between horses, came three deep into the stretch and finished well. SHE BE STRIKING (GB) saved ground chasing the pace, came out leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and found her best stride late. MADAKET SUNSET stalked off the inside then three deep to the stretch and was outfinished. STRADELLA ROAD close up stalking the pace just off the rail to the stretch, lacked the needed late kick. SCREENSHOT chased outside then alongside a rival to the stretch and had a mild late bid. ORAGEUSE angled in and saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside into and through the stretch and did not rally. KAYDETRE hopped slightly in a bit of a slow start, dropped back off the rail, angled to the inside leaving the hill, came out into the stretch and made up some ground but was not a serious threat. SECOND FIDDLE pulled early, stalked between horses then outside a rival or off the rail, came out four wide into the stretch and weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

IMPERIAL CREED angled in and settled inside, moved up along the rail leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch, swept past the runner-up under urging in midstretch and won clear. QUEEN OF THE TRACK three deep early, pressed the pace outside a rival then kicked clear and angled in, opened up on the second turn, shortened stride in the final furlong and could not match the winner. TWITTERATI stalked three deep then chased between foes leaving the second turn and into the stretch and bested the others. CAT HOLIC stalked just off the rail then outside a rival leaving the backstretch and a bit off the fence on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. AMERICAN FALLS four wide on the first turn, chased off the rail, went four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked a further response. MORNING PRESS saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and weakened. SPICY CURRY pulled between horses then chased between foes, angled in on the second turn and gave way. LADY SUZZETT sent along and angled in early, dueled inside then stalked, dropped back into and on the second turn and gave way and was eased in the stretch but did cross the wire. JELLYBEANKRISTINE unhurried and angled in early, saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and had nothing left for the drive, also was eased in the stretch and did not cross the wire but was walked off.

VENUE stalked the pace inside, bid between horses to take the lead leaving the turn, inched away under urging in the stretch and proved best. LONDON HOTEL a bit slow into stride, saved ground chasing the pace, split rivals into the turn, came out leaving the bend and four wide into the stretch, drifted in some but edged a rival for the place. DESIRED EDGE close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail then inside, bid along the fence leaving the turn and was edged late for second. Z Z TIGER sped to the early lead, set the pace off the rail, was three wide leaving the turn and into the stretch and weakened. ZILLINDA stalked between horses then outside or off the rail on the turn and three wide into the stretch and also weakened. IRISH LASSIE chased three deep, angled to the inside on the turn and also weakened. MINISTER'SMISTRESS stalked three deep between horses, dropped back on the turn and gave way. GREY TSUNAMI chased between horses, angled to the rail on the turn and had little left for the drive. I ADORE YOU five wide early, stalked four wide, dropped back outside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and gave way.

CIMPL MAN stalked between horses, came out three deep into the stretch, bid four wide under urging a sixteenth out and gamely prevailed. RAPID RED angled in and dueled outside a rival, fought back between horses in the stretch, put a head in front in deep stretch and continued willingly. THE BIG TRAIN also angled in and stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and finished with interest to gain the show late. SECRETO PRIMERO saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the second turn, bid three deep into the stretch, gained the advantage in midstretch, battled between foes in deep stretch and was edged for third. PLAY HARD TO GET chased a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn and into the stretch, split rivals past midstretch and was outfinished. ROYAL ALBERT HALL (GB) allowed to settle a bit off the rail, came out leaving the second turn and five wide into the stretch and also was outfinished. LEWIS VALE had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back in the stretch and weakened late. UPPER ROOM stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SAXON LORD three deep into the first turn, chased just off the rail then outside a rival on the second turn and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. POINT PIPER saved ground stalking the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

WISE CURLIN sent inside, set a pressured pace along the rail, inched clear on the second turn, came a bit off the fence in the stretch and just held under urging. HAYLORD prompted the pace outside the winner then stalked off the rail on the second turn and in the stretch and came back on deep stretch to just miss. INDIAN GULCH chased three deep then outside a rival on the second turn, drifted to the inside in the stretch and bested the others. PLATINUM EQUITY stalked three deep then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. HARD ARCH a step slow to begin, angled in and chased just off the rail, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. SCHOENHARDT stalked the pace between horses then inside on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. SPIRIT WORLD bobbled at the start, saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back inside into and on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the drive.

ANDESH (IRE) pulled along the inside early, stalked inside then a bit off the rail, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch, rallied under some left handed urging to gain the lead three wide in deep stretch and won clear. RISKY PROPOSITION saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and again in midstretch and gained the place. EPICAL broke out a bit, angled in and chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and edged rivals late for the show. JIMMY CHILA had speed outside the pacesetter then stalked outside a rival, bid again between foes on the backstretch and second turn, put a head in front into the stretch, battled outside a foe in midstretch then between horses in deep stretch and was outfinished late for third. EXTRORDINARY JERRY angled in and set the pace inside then dueled along the rail, came a bit off the fence in the stretch, fought back in the drive and was outfinished for a minor award. MAGIC MUSKETIER chased inside then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. MOVE OVER (GB) bumped at the start, angled in and chased a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn, moved up along the rail in the stretch and split horses on the line. SHADOW SPHINX broke out and bumped a rival, stalked outside a foe then bid between horses on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

JUNE TWO FOUR had speed off the rail then angled in and dueled inside, kicked clear on the second turn and drew off in the stretch under urging then a long hold late. ELEVATE a bit slow to begin, chased between horses, angled in on the second turn, came out into the stretch and bested the others. OBSCURE BREW pulled along the inside, saved ground stalking the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and held third. ROYAL REBEL bobbled at the start, settled off the pace inside, continued along the rail into the stretch and improved position. GAME OF ROANS stalked inside then between horses leaving the backstretch, angled to the rail again into the stretch and weakened. ACTIVATED settled off the rail, went up four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. BANK WALKER broke a bit slowly, chased outside, also went four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. ARMED WALL also broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then three deep, went six wide into the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was not a threat. IRONIC RON bobbled slightly at the break, had speed four wide then dueled outside a rival, battled between horses on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn and weakened. LAW BREAKER stalked three deep then four wide leaving the backstretch, fell back and angled in on the second turn and gave way. SEVERIN stalked outside then bid three deep on the backstretch to duel for the lead, also dropped back on the second turn and gave way.