Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 9

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 8-4-1 (.667); season 73-45-2 (.619). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 4-8-1 (.333); season 56-60-4 (.483). Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, New England, Washington have the week off.

::

Pittsburgh (4-3) at Baltimore (3-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 27, Ravens 24

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Ravens by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

This game likely hinges on whether Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger can play, and to some semblance of his typical level. Here’s betting he does and is effective enough.

::

Jacksonville (2-5) at Kansas City (5-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 27, Jaguars 14

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Chiefs by 7. O/U: 44.

The Chiefs are going to run it, stop the run, rush the passer, and force the Jaguars into turnovers. Jacksonville isn’t playing with confidence after consecutive ugly losses.

::

N.Y. Jets (3-5) at Miami (3-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Dolphins 23, Jets 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Dolphins by 4. O/U: 44.

The Jets are No. 1 against the run, but Miami has been coming on strong in that department. The Dolphins, with the way their line is playing, should be able to run it enough.

::

Dallas (6-1) at Cleveland (0-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Cowboys 23, Browns 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Cowboys by 7. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Browns are playing hard. They just aren’t very good, and they have no consistency at quarterback. So even though Dallas will win, this game will be closer than many think.

::

Detroit (4-4) at Minnesota (5-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Lions 23, Vikings 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Vikings by 6. O/U: 40 1/2.

Matthew Stafford has been on a roll, moving the ball and spreading it around. The Vikings have an outstanding defense, but that unit is going to be on the field a lot.

::

Philadelphia (4-3) at N.Y. Giants (4-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Giants 24, Eagles 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Giants by 2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Giants are rested coming off their bye, and they’ve picked up some how-to-beat-the-Eagles tips in recent weeks. Philadelphia lacks dependable, and deep-threat, receivers.

::

Carolina (2-5) at L.A. Rams (3-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Panthers 27, Rams 21

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Panthers by 3. O/U: 45.

The Panthers are third against the run, and lesser defenses have stopped the Rams’ ground game. So pressure stays piled on Case Keenum. Cam Newton responds to L.A. spotlight.

::

New Orleans (3-4) at San Francisco (1-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Saints 28, 49ers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Saints by 5. O/U: 52 1/2.

Even though the Saints are on the road, they still have the firepower to give the 49ers problems. New Orleans is riding a bit of a wave coming off the victory over Seattle.

::

Indianapolis (3-5) at Green Bay (4-3)

Sunday, 1:15 pm.

Packers 31, Colts 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Packers by 7 1/2. O/U: 54.

Even though the Packers have a bunch of high-profile injuries, they also have Aaron Rodgers on their side. The way the Colts are playing, they’re not likely to win this on the road.

::

Tennessee (4-4) at San Diego (3-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Titans 23, Chargers 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Chargers by 4 1/2. O/U: 47.

Week after week, quarterback Philip Rivers is keeping the Chargers competitive. San Diego is sixth against the run, but the ball-control Titans will put that ranking to the test.

::

Denver (6-2) at Oakland (6-2)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Raiders 27, Broncos 23

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Raiders by 1 1/2. O/U: 44.

Ironically, the biggest strike against the road-warrior Raiders is they’re at home. Denver’s offense has been sputtering, and will have a hard time matching Derek Carr and those receivers.

::

Buffalo (4-4) at Seattle (4-2-1)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Bills 23, Seahawks 20

TV: ESPN.

Line: Seahawks by 7. O/U: 43 1/2.

Buffalo has a chance to sweep the NFC West with a win here. The Seahawks have been far from dominant in the past three weeks, and the Bills will be able to get to Russell Wilson.