Horse racing newsletter: Catching up on the news

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

Let’s catch up on the news from the past week.

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter

--Legendary sire A.P. Indy died on Friday at age 31. Lane’s End Farm made the announcement and said there was no specific cause of death other than the infirmities of old age. He only ran 11 races, winning eight of them including the Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic. He also won the Hollywood Derby and Santa Anita Derby. You can read more about it from Frank Angst of Bloodhorse. Just click here.

--Bast, a leading contender for the Kentucky Oaks, was retired on Thursday with a soft tissue injury. She was a three-time Grade 1 winner—the Del Mar Debutante, Chandelier Stakes and Starlet Stakes. She was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. “She wasn’t off at all, but we noticed some slight filling in an ankle,” trainer Bob Baffert told Jessica Martini of Thoroughbred Daily News. “It’s minor, but she’d need at least four months off and there is no guarantee how she’d come back. So, we just decided to retire her. She’ll go back to Kentucky to be bred.” To read the TDN story, just click here.

--Santa Anita’s racing office got a shot in the arm when it brought back Chris Merz to be the Director of Racing. He was at the Maryland Jockey Club (i.e. Laurel and Pimlico three weeks a year) as Racing Secretary since 2018. In his time in Southern California he was stakes coordinator at Santa Anita and Del Mar and was the Assistant Racing Secretary at Los Alamitos. It’s no secret the racing office has been struggling in trying to write books that have been seriously affected by a horse shortage. Merz will report to Steve Lym, vice president of racing.

Aidan Butler, the guy who runs the track with a huge title that can be abbreviated AEDCROTSG, also promoted Nate Newby, the top guy in marketing, to Senior VP and assistant general manager, and Amy Zimmerman to Senior VP and executive producer.

One question: Can you have an assistant general manager if you don’t have a general manager?

--Santa Anita had its eighth horse fatality on Thursday when Unveiled had a fracture in his right front. The horse was galloping during training. For more, just click here.

--The California Horse Racing Board met on Thursday and didn’t really make any headlines. There was a lot of talk about the riding crop and in the end, it was tabled for more research on what others are doing in this area. The meeting was held at the Cal Expo Fairgrounds.

Rick Baedeker, executive director of the CHRB, said that mutuel handle for January was down 8% year-over-year for daytime racing with two fewer programs. Average daily handle was down 2%. Nighttime racing, with three more programs, was up 6.2%. Altogether, business was down 6.65%. Baedeker made no mention of the long-time-in-coming report on the deaths last year at Santa Anita.

Just an observation, not that I could do any better, but it would be helpful if chairman Greg Ferraro could get more control of public comment during a specific agenda item. If the comment isn’t specifically about the item, it needs to held until the general comment period. Public comment is absolutely essential and needed but it needs to be germane to the discussion at hand. Even the soon-to-be-departing Baedeker brought up this point but then backed down by saying, “No biggie.”

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the second race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is an optional claimer at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf, a condition which offers a glimpse into the mindset of connections with regard to making their horse eligible to be claimed out of these races. In the case of this offering, both BIDDY DUKE and VEGAN are eligible to be claimed, and typically, we try and beat runners who have a tag attached, except if a horse was claimed for far less than Sunday’s tag price, has recouped the investment, and the thought of a higher priced claim is simply a cherry on the sundae. Then it’s OK, sure. In the case of these two, though, the tag is almost an ‘out,’ with hopes another will drop a claim, relieving the current connections of financial stress. As a general rule, runners up for a tag in an optional claiming race, are usually better plays ‘against,’ rather than backing. This race also is likely gonna serve as a nice example, as to the power of a healthy runner, with top selection is LOFTY (#6). She strings races together for the first time ever, which also coincides with coming off a winning effort, and as we remind members often, good health opens the door to good efforts, and rarely is there any other way around that. Throw in the fact she absolutely excelled when given a turf sprint for the first time, and there’s every reason to believe she can improve off that last effort, with two solid works in place as well. RSTARS AND STRIPES (#2) didn’t beat anything in her debut, then again, she can only beat who she’s lined up against, and there’s plenty of good intentions here. She was claimed out of her debut, always a pretty positive thing to see, and now, Steve Knapp moves immediately to the turf, a plan in place, with Umberto Rispoli taking the mount, and as we often say, this sport rewards both patience and strategies. There was a clear strategy off the claim here.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 6-2-4

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“4 Secret Square - Has enough speed to stay close up, exiting a mile offering which’ll give a touch of stamina down the lane. Not tough to find with Rosario riding so many live runners for Sadler these days.

“Negative Notes:

“7 Vegan - Needs a patient ride off leaders, which is why Gutierrez was a better fit, as Delgadillo is much better suited to settling runners on the front end, and that’s not likely gonna be the case with this one here Sunday.

“TOP PICK: LOFTY (#6 9-5 Franco)

“SECOND CHOICE: RSTARS AND STRIPES (#2 6-1 Rispoli)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

New Santa Anita bet

In the hopes of generating gambling interest, The Stronach Group is putting together something called the Golden Hour Double, which is a $5 minimum bet on the last races at Santa Anita and Golden Gate. That alone wouldn’t be enough, but the takeout is lowered to 15%. It will also have a guaranteed $50,000 pool.

The takeout angle should generate interest and both tracks tend to have big field sizes on the last race to get interest in the Pick Five and the Rainbow Six. The $5 minimum harkens back to yesteryear when exactas were $5 and not offered on every race.

So, now we have $5 bet with a 15% takeout (Golden Hour Double) and a 20-cent bet with a 40+% takeout (Rainbow Six) when there is more than one winner. We’ll be eager to see if the former cannibalizes the latter. The guess here is no. It starts Feb. 29.

Santa Anita review

Saturday’s feature was the Grade 2 $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes for fillies and mares going a mile on the turf. It appeared as if Jolie Olimpica was going to wire the field going into the stretch but she tired and gave way to Keeper Ofthe Stars to win by a half-length.

Keeper Ofthe Stars paid a hefty $74.20, $14.80 and $6.00. Jolie Olimpica finished second and Mucho Unusual was third.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Jonathan Wong (winning trainer): “We have been very high on this filly. When Tom and Debi (Stull) from Tommy Town Thoroughbreds gave her to me it felt like the best horse we have ever had. We thought she would come from off the pace. She is better when she has something to chase and when she is on the outside and clear, because she has such a long stride it takes her a while to get going.

Abel Cedillo (winning jockey): “I thought if we could get her to relax off the pace [Saturday], she could make one run. I got her back going into the first turn and she relaxed really good. The distance was perfect and she finished really strong.”

Santa Anita preview

Before we get to Sunday’s card, let’s talk about the race you won’t see, the $100,000 Spring Fever Stakes for Cal-bred fillies and mares going six furlongs. It was canceled because of not enough entries. Now, I’m not an owner or trainer so I can’t talk to motivations. But this is a race that possibly wasn’t made because of the quality of horses that were nominated for it.

There is Spiced Perfection, who has been running at the upper stratosphere of these races and also Show It N Moe It, who is a veteran graded stakes competitor. That’s a lot for Cal-breds to run against, so they aren’t. That’s my educated guess on why the race was canceled for lack of entries.

OK, on to Sunday’s races, eight of them with a post of 12:30 p.m. The feature, we’re guessing, is the fourth, an allowance/optional claimer for horses going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Doug O’Neill has the top two favorites.

Murad Khan is the morning-line top choice at 7-5 with Flavien Prat aboard. The 7-year-old gelding is seven-of-27 lifetime and is first off a claim for O’Neill. He has mostly been running at the allowance and claiming level.

The other O’Neil horse is What’sontheagenda at 2-1 with Tiago Pereira in the saddle. The 6-year-old gelding is three-for-20 lifetime and is coming off a second in the Clocker’s Corner. His last win will be exactly one year ago Sunday.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 7, 6, 6, 10, 9, 6, 10 (4 also eligible).

Ciaran Thornton’s SA picks of the day

RACE TWO: No. 2 Rstars and Stripes (6-1)

RACE TEN: No. 10 Mountain Spirit (15-1)

There are four turf races Sunday and my value plays are following Umberto Rispoli. Since the opening day I have been singing the praises of this Italian jockey who came here by way of Hong Kong. Umberto has proven how good he is by winning 21 races so far. More impressive is 17 of his wins are on turf. Any horse he rides on turf right now is a must look at. My top price plays for him today are Rstars and Stripes in race two and Mountain Spirit in race 10.

In race two, Rstars and Stripes was claimed out of a dominating debut win on Feb. 2nd by trainer Steve Knapp. Stripes won by nine easy lengths going six furlongs on dirt. They cut back Sunday and move to turf with Umberto Rispoli riding for the second start. Stripes races protected. Joel Rosario rode the win but lands on the John Sadler/Hronis Racing horse Secret Square giving Umberto another chance to get a value win on turf. Both Rosario and Umberto share the same agent. Coincidence? I think not! 6-1 seems too good to be true.

In race 10 Mountain Spirit from trainer Jeff Mullins makes the 3rd start off the layoff, a move Mullins wins 15%. This is the 2nd time routing with Mullins winning 25% of the time. Umberto Rispoli rides again.15-1 is a very attractive price for the last race of the card.

Saturday’s result: Kiss Today Goodbye went off at 7-1 and another great ride by Umbert Rispoli gave us the win. Umberto had Kiss much closer as I expected and cruised late on the outside to win by a head on the line. Finishes like that and value like that are why we play this great game. Kiss Today Goodbye paid $16.20 for the win.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Tampa Bay (6): $100,000 Turf Dash Stakes, 4 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Winner: Faction Cat ($11.40)

Gulfstream (9): Grade 3 $100,000 World of Trouble Sprint Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Jackson ($28.20)

Tampa Bay (8): $100,000 Lightning City Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Winner: Jean Elizabeth ($3.60)

Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Haynesfield Stakes, NY-breds 4 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Mr. Buff ($2.60)

Santa Anita (5): Grade 2 $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Keeper Ofthe Stars ($74.20)

Oaklawn (9): $125,000 Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes, Ark-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Bye Bye J ($3.20)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PST:

1:20 Aqueduct (7): $100,000 Maddie May Stakes, NY-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Ice Princess (1-2)

3:09 Sunland (8): $100,000 Albert and Henry Dominguez Memorial Handicap, NM-breds 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Rig Time (3-1)

3:36 Sunland (9): $100,000 Mine That Bird Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Sir Rick (2-1)

4:03 Sunland (10): $100,000 Red Hedeman Mile, NM-breds 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Ancient Land (3-1)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 3 Favorite Mongoose (9-2)

He benefits from a top-notch jockey/trainer combo (21%), but he is a trouble prone runner taking a drop into the claiming ranks Sunday. In his last effort, the Favorite Cartel gelding bobbled harshly at the start to lose a length before finishing fairly well for fourth while running in close quarters late. He’s capable of breaking cleanly, which could put in a great position to deliver a win at a nice price.

Now, the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.